Structural Differences Shape Logistics Capacity

The road transport markets in Europe and the United States have shown clearly divergent developments since 2024. And while both regions experienced similar capacity movements in 2022, they have taken distinctly different courses in recent years. Christian Dolderer, Lead Research Analyst at Transporeon, a Trimble Company, analyses the market and explains the reasons behind these trends looking ahead to 2026.

The capacity index, based on transactional data, reflects overall market sentiment regarding available road freight capacity. Comparing developments across both regions provides deeper insight into the underlying dynamics of supply and demand.

In 2022, both Europe and the US experienced expected capacity constraints, followed by a rebound a few months later. However, the US market experienced this cycle approximately four months earlier than Europe. In 2023, available capacity in both regions reached its highest level in years, after which the markets began to diverge in the first quarter of 2024.

In the US, available capacity remained high through the fourth quarter of 2025, creating a favourable market environment for shippers and brokers. In contrast, capacity in Europe steadily declined, a trend that, after a brief stabilisation in 2025, has continued into 2026.

According to Dolderer, this development can…